Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 38.770179 45.791432 53.467818 62.450648 72.639526 83.802602 96.922169
2025-01-12 29.996826 39.757996 51.424649 66.247985 84.419531 105.801551 132.681401
2025-01-19 21.978169 32.075735 45.058435 62.666357 85.579695 114.018471 151.567129
2025-01-26 18.571082 29.306070 43.935928 64.810390 93.233926 129.937613 180.163500
2025-02-02 16.704826 28.181949 44.610080 69.052848 103.579697 149.594779 214.356958
2025-02-09 14.610643 26.303557 43.848236 71.003308 110.689707 165.130090 243.720097
2025-02-16 12.737442 24.416286 42.745429 72.183813 116.580439 179.105056 271.454404
2025-02-23 10.930381 22.314767 40.995911 72.101473 120.450266 190.262187 295.616390
2025-03-02 9.174317 19.989754 38.562713 70.627687 121.978664 197.957720 315.031774
2025-03-09 7.906922 18.321586 36.981131 70.283673 125.078833 207.946214 338.017161
2025-03-16 6.313949 15.734638 33.469239 66.350357 122.133426 208.584411 347.091712
2025-03-23 5.722328 15.055792 33.277946 68.009456 128.237085 223.209096 377.578547
2025-03-30 4.803629 13.608461 31.660899 67.350608 131.038919 233.749662 403.821667
2025-04-06 4.486665 13.465714 32.582405 71.439013 142.283396 258.455668 453.463027
2025-04-13 3.486169 11.460135 29.460032 67.629440 139.509597 260.349519 467.335494
2025-04-20 3.145659 11.020613 29.527273 69.911913 147.624690 280.436117 510.965423
2025-04-27 3.003707 11.079536 30.678718 74.425635 160.042681 308.242588 568.130813
2025-05-04 2.709428 10.639183 30.641012 76.499780 168.049007 328.895937 614.336403
2025-05-11 2.401981 10.078394 30.238071 77.754844 174.556677 347.220961 657.328741
2025-05-18 2.064715 9.326568 29.259429 77.667311 178.446770 361.112316 693.361537
2025-05-25 1.709696 8.398522 27.688025 76.100388 179.296511 369.608882 720.499791
2025-06-01 1.457900 7.743342 26.707243 75.734584 182.463225 382.325929 755.249509
2025-06-08 1.114954 6.600854 24.202514 71.550713 177.532256 380.019258 763.760113